The Billings Model is useful for predicting the probability of a single student completing a correspondence course. It's based on a correlation or regression matrix of characteristics that are implied to be cause effect determinants of this type of success. For example, students with higher GPA's or those who had completed other correspondence courses had a higher probability of completing the next correspondence course. As well other variables, such an environmental and attitudinal, are included in the regression probability.

Whereas it's not exactly rocket science to discover that students with higher GPA's are usually more motivated and have a higher chance of completing classes, it is very important I think to focus on such seemingly banal and obvious indicators to bring attention to the students who may be at risk. I like this bumper sticker I see every now and then: "If you think education is expensive, try ignorance." With these types of analyses, success' predictors, we can focus on students (and I admit, I mainly think of high school kids) who need more help. The successful student will often learn in spite of poorly structured content or interaction. The at risk student will not. They need special attention. Maybe they need a special DL course. One that let's them be more creative, one that is highly highly structured, one that involves hand-holding guidance from the instructor or tutor every day. Who knows for sure, because it depends? What is known though that without those diverse types of instructional settings a lot of students are going to fail, meaning drop out of the system with little chance of getting back in, economically, emotionally (self-esteem), intellectually, spiritually, etc.

I realize this is an academic setting, this class we're in. And I know academics wants to see people get A's as opposed to failing, finish the class as opposed to dropping out etc, but there are so many other ways to measure success. Since the question to answer is what are the important factors to successfully completing this course for ME, let me redefine success. Success is not an A or even completing the class. I may choose tomorrow to no longer attend and still consider my participation in the class to have been a success, or I may stay until the end, get an A and consider my participation in the class to have been a complete failure. I have the luxury of not taking the class for any degree or credit, and I have a self-esteem that is not at all based on grades.

The only factor that will help me successfully complete this course is my belief that I will learn to see the world differently making me understand who and where I am. A key factor in this belief is that I trust everyone else. I have to trust every instructor and each student to present the truth of their experience as they know it. I don't expect us all to be bias free, but instead to explore the nature of our biases in an environment that as a stated goal is non-judgmental. Another factor that helps me maintain interest in the class, which is key for me, is that people think. I'm sure you've seen I don't have much interest in what are the strengths and weaknesses of this model or that, but what are the social implications, the mythological assumptions behind that model's belief, what does that make us all think of and LEARN outside the iterative summation of the model? That's why I will probably stay in this class and consider it to be a successful journey, because people say "Ohhhh, oooooohh, that makes me think..." I don't agree with a lot of what people say. I have a different background, different goals, a different belief system of where I'd like the world to go and what academic institutions should be. But I expect to encounter differences of opinion, even opposite opinions. Some people's posting I don't even understand, and I would not have expected that at all. This is where my success will be. Did I listen to others with an open mind; did I try to see their point of view even though I've discarded their assumptions long ago; do I need to reevaluate their assumptions, bring them back into my life as a potential? The more I can ask that question, and answer it, the more successful I will have been.